Forecasting EV Sales And EV Battery & Metal Prices — Interview with BloombergNEF’s Head of Clean Power Research
In the this episode of our CleanTech Talk podcast interview series, Zachary Shahan, Director and CEO of CleanTechnica, and Logan Goldie-Scot, Head of Clean Power Research at BloombergNEF, sit down to talk about the battery supply chain. You can listen to the full conversation in the embedded player below. Below that embedded SoundCloud player is a brief summary of the topics covered, but tune into the podcast to follow the full discussion.
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Logan joined BloombergNEF back in 2009, and has been researching and writing about the battery supply chain and the increasing ambition relating to decarbonization around the world since. The changes Logan has seen in the past 18 months have been at a much quicker pace, he notes, which makes him excited to see the ways in which battery development influences the decarbonization of transportation and power moving forward.
Zach and Logan launch this episode by talking about Logan’s first few years of publishing about the battery supply chain, in which BloombergNEF looked at projections for batteries in terms of cost and were ridiculed by many for having ridiculously low estimates. What the team found, however, was that they were in fact far too conservative, says Logan. A lot has changed since their initial projections, and facts like 8 out of 12 top global economies having net zero targets surprised even Logan himself.
The two move into talking about having enough minerals to meet the rising demand for batteries. As Zach notes, the industry is grappling with the question of whether the supply chain can continue to develop in line with the ever-growing and ever-changing demand. Logan notes that through the last couple of years, they observed low prices for minerals that discouraged investment and prompted operators on the supply side to delay expansion plans. But with metal prices set to rise this year, he believes new supply will come online relatively quickly.
Logan believes that there is a lot of change needed in the battery supply chain space, but also that many in the industry are well equipped to adjust to those changes. His main concerns include ensuring that the products brought to the market are both sustainable and ethical. Zach and Logan talk a bit more about the lifecycle emissions of vehicles and the ways in which safety and sustainability will be top of mind moving forward.
To hear more on these topics, listen to the show!